Australia is famous for a supposedly idyllic lifestyle, “mateship”, an opera house, funny accents, and kangaroos.

The country is also going through the worst drought in its recorded history.

Since 2003, the country has been completely parched. Rainfall has been at a record low—the last time Australia received so little rain was 108 years ago, during another infamous drought. This time, the drought is aggravated by some of the highest temperatures on record. Most of the affected territories have effected water-conservation laws, but it may have come too late. Australia’s industries have already been severely and adversely affected—their cotton industry especially harshly. Compounded with a 37% slash in water usage, Australia’s cotton industry has suffered a 66% reduction in production.

The country has changed politically too. Concerns over climate change prompted the public to oust the climate-change denier John Howard (who was incumbent for almost 12 years) and replace him with Kevin Rudd. Only nine days after his election, Rudd’s administration ratified the Kyoto Protocol. Australia’s per capita carbon dioxide emissions are second only to the United States, making this a significant milestone for backers of the Kyoto treaty.

Global warming has a significant impact on drought. As the global climate warms, rainfall patterns change. Most importantly, rainfall is redistributed—wet areas get wetter and dry areas get drier. In essence, rainfall trends get amplified—and the price for us to pay is extreme weather, including drought.

Whatever the cause, the lack of water is having a very palpable impact on world society. Notable examples include Southern Spain, South India, Darfur, and the Middle East.

The Murcia Situation

Water disputes of a different kind have manifested themselves in southeast Spain. The province of Murcia historically has been arid, but poor water management and misuse of resources have served to aggravate the effects of one of the worst droughts on record. Despite the extreme aridity, Murcia has seen the construction of water-hungry swimming pools, golf courses, resorts, and large farms. Agricultural water is largely used to grow crops such as lettuce, which require ample irrigation. Corrupt business practices abound; investors classify vacation resorts as “farms” and golf course grass as “crops” in order to obtain water normally set aside for agriculture. Combined with corrupt political practices, the situation is coming to a breaking point; a black market in water now flourishes, and average water prices are three times higher than usual. While riots have not broken out yet in Murcia, it is reasonable to expect that they will soon. After all, you can’t fool all the people all the time. (Read more about this here).

The Kaveri River Dispute

The Kaveri (sometimes spelled Cauvery) river in South India has been the focus of intense controversy since the early 1990’s. The river’s drainage basin provides most of the water for the states of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and the Union Territory of Puducherry (formerly Pondicherry). For much of its history, India has been divided up into petty kingdoms, often constantly at war with each other. As a result, ethnic tensions in India have always been elevated, often sparking violence over competition for limited resources. Unsurprisingly, the sum of each of the water claims of the different states is far over the actual availability of water.

When a tribunal set up to resolve the dispute ruled in favor of Tamil Nadu, riots broke out in Bangalore, the capital of Karnataka. Fearing for their lives, several thousand Tamil families left Karnataka. However, one might write this off as sporadic communal violence. The fact that there are so many ethnic groups in India suggests that there will be a lot of ethnic conflict. Water, being so necessary to our lives, is certainly worth fighting for.

Nevertheless, the violence seen here pales in comparison to another “water war” fought on a different continent: Africa.

Drought and Darfur

Decades of ethnic tension in Darfur reached a breaking point in 1983 and 1984, as rains failed during both years. The resulting drought and famine led to the overthrow of the incumbent president, Gaafar Nimiery.

Whether due to climate change or freak weather, a slew of other climatic problems struck the region in succession over the next two decades. Most importantly, increased desertification made water even more scarce in the already arid region. By 2003, when the current iteration/incarnation of the Darfur genocide began, water was already a precious commodity in the parched land.

While there are many causes of the Darfur genocide, the scarcity of water is certainly an important factor. Just like in the Kaveri River dispute, water served (and still serves) as a trigger to ignite long-standing ethnic tensions.

Looking forward: The Middle East

India and Sudan definitely do have a history of ethnic violence, so water-related tensions serve to ignite the metaphorical pile of kindling. However, even in more democratically-oriented but drought-plagued societies such as Australia, water plays a powerful political role.

It should be safe to expect that the next large-scale water-related conflict will be in the Middle East. The aforementioned empirical examples share a few similarities:

1. Competition for water—where the demand for water exceeds the supply.
2. Arid conditions for at least part of the year.
3. Water mismanagement, or unequal sharing of water resources.
4. A lack of political, economic, or social unity.

There is one area of the world I have not mentioned so far that meets all these criteria: the Middle East. Shi’ite and Sunni Muslims have been locked in a rather thorny conflict for one and a half thousand years, satisfying criterion 4. The desert conditions ensure that water is a precious, difficult to obtain, and rare resource. Up to now, disputes have mostly been handled diplomatically in the Middle East. However, that may not last very long. Unequal water sharing between Israelis and Palestinians has helped to heighten the already high tensions between the two groups; Israel also controls most of the water resources in its area. Nevertheless, a far more pressing concern plagues the future of the two countries: the supply of water is dwindling. The Jordan River has slowly been drying up, and the supply from aquifers is on the decline, forcing Israel to import water from Turkey in exchange for military technology. Undoubtedly, unless Israelis and Palestinians mutually agree on peace terms soon, the situation could easily spiral out of control.

Even between other Middle Eastern countries, the risk of war is still extant. Much of Iraq’s water, for instance, comes from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. Both of these rivers start in Iraq’s neighbor to the north, Turkey. Historically, Iraq and Turkey have not been on excellent terms; just last year, Turkey was beginning an invasion of Iraq before diplomatic pressure stopped the mobilization.

Cooperation is the key

Clearly, the world needs to rethink its policies toward water. It may be slightly optimistic to hope for total cooperation, but that is the best way to avert what could become a very thorny world conflict. Only with equal and fair sharing of water is it possible for the world to not have a water war.

Current manifestations of water disputes have largely been affected by climate change and global warming. The UN projects that in Murcia, precipitation will drop 20% by 2020 as a result of increased temperatures and changing rainfall patterns. Potential water conflicts will also need to be dealt with on the global warming front. By minimizing the effects of global warming, it will also mitigate the consequences of droughts.

While there are enormous barriers to creating a global water-sharing plan, fair and equal sharing plans can certainly be achieved on a local scale.

For the good of humanity, I hope it gets done.

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